China’s Trade with other Asian countries C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Just before the Global Financial Crisis more than a decade ago, China had emerged as the most significant trading partner for a majority of the world’s economies. Since then, it has had even more significant impacts on global exports and imports. This is especially true for developing countries, particularly those in developing Asia. (In the discussion that follows, only merchandise trade is considered.) But these effects are now more complex. China’s now legendary trade surpluses began showing shortly after its entry into the WTO on 31 December 2001. As Figure 1 shows, exports increased rapidly until 2008, and also recovered…

The demise of neoliberalism in Mexico today if so, so what Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid

Background Last July, Mexico´s political landscape was turned upside down by the landslide victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in the Presidential elections, and of MORENA (his party) obtaining a majority of seats in both legislative chambers. In his inauguration speech, last December, he once again derided the neoliberal policies implemented in Mexico since the mid-1980s. He signaled Neoliberalism as the cause of Mexico´s calamitous long-term economic performance, marked by slow growth, rising inequality and widespread poverty. And blamed it as the origin of rampant corruption. He promised “…to abolish the neo-liberal regime” and to implement a different agenda…

Lost in Deflation: Why Italy’s woes are a warning to the whole Eurozone Servaas Storm

Using macroeconomic data for 1960-2018, this paper analyzes the origins of the crisis of the ‘post-Maastricht Treaty order of Italian capitalism’. After 1992, Italy did more than most other Eurozone members to satisfy EMU conditions in terms of self-imposed fiscal consolidation, structural reform and real wage restraint—and the country was undeniably successful in bringing down inflation, moderating wages, running primary fiscal surpluses, reducing unemployment and raising the profit share. But its adherence to the EMU rulebook asphyxiated Italy’s domestic demand and exports—and resulted not just in economic stagnation and a generalized productivity slowdown, but in relative and absolute decline in…

Prevalence of Undernourishment in Indian States: Explorations Based on NSS 68th Round Data Vikas Rawal, Vaishali Bansal, Prachi Bansal

Prevalence of undernourishment, a measure developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization, is a key indicator for global hunger and food insecurity targets. The FAO has developed a sound conceptual model for estimating the prevalence of dietary energy deficiency. However, the estimation methodology of the prevalence of undernourishment has been a subject of much debate. Important modifications are suggested in the estimation of the distribution of average calorie intake and average minimum dietary energy requirements. Using the latest available data and the revised methodology, it is shown that about 472 million people in India, a staggering 39% of the population,…

Vanishing Green Shoots C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

When the third estimate of US growth in the last quarter of 2018 was released the euphoria exuded by forecasters of global growth even a few months earlier waned. The annualised quarter on quarter growth rate that had risen to a more than comfortable 4.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2018, had fallen to 3.4 and 2.2 per cent in the subsequent two quarters (Chart 1). The quarterly rates measuring growth relative to the corresponding quarter in the previous year after having risen consistently have stagnated (Chart 2). Once again it appears that growth in the US is…

Why is South Asia performing so badly on the SDGs? C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The SDGs were obviously incredibly ambitious – far more so than the Millennium Development Goals that they succeeded – and so it was indeed a remarkable achievement that governments of almost all countries signed up to them. There were no less than 17 very significant and substantive goals, each containing multiple targets, and each target relying often on more than one indicator. And these goals and targets are not simply extrapolations of past trends (as several of the MDGs were). Rather, some of them present formidable challenges, since they require a reversal of the prior trends, such as reducing inequalities,…

Resist to exist Ali Kadri

Empires practise imperialism. Empires subordinate masses and nations and exact tribute from them. The reason and means by which tribute is exacted change by changing historical circumstance. Imperialism assumes new forms and there are many ways to define imperialism. Each definition depends on the angle one takes or the level of abstraction one assumes. For instance, I can depart from my under- standing of capital, the dominant social relation in the historical stage known as capitalism, as that relation which ‘drips with blood’ (as per Marx 1859). Such is not a hyperbolic statement. Unlike past forms of imperialist barbarity, the…

A Brave New World, or the Same Old Story with New Characters? Jayati Ghosh

Capitalism has always been a global system, but not in fixed ways. Different national powers have emerged and become dominant over the centuries, but the fundamental processes underlying the uneven development of global capitalism have not altered; they continue to be driven by imperialism the struggle of large capital over economic territory of various kinds. Since the late 1960s, only the East Asian region has shown notable increases in its share of global GDP, and for the last two decades this has been dominated by the rise of China. This is directly related to the ability of the Chinese state…

Migration and Remittances: The gender angle C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The gender distribution of migrant workers has a macroeconomic impact – it affects both the level and the volatility of remittance inflows, as the Asian experience shows. The gender distribution of cross-border migration obviously matters because women migrating for work face very different conditions from those of men migrants, whether in the source country, or in the process of travel or in the destination country. These are crucially affected by the gender construction as well as the nature of labour markets in both societies of origin and destination. This is well accepted and now quite widely studied. However, the macroeconomic…

Why Multilateral Development Banks should provide Finance in Domestic Currencies: A Growth and Financial Stability Proposal Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira

National banks are supposed to offer finance or capital to private and stateowned enterprises, which allows them to invest and to innovate. From this we would conclude that multilateral banks should play the same role, with the difference that its loans are usually disbursed in a reserve currency. This paper rejects that developing countries need foreign capital but acknowledges that major projects often require finance. Thus, it distinguishes, on the macroeconomic level, finance from capital. The assumption is that, to execute large investment projects, developing countries need finance, not capital; countries should not be interested in incurring in current account…