Moody’s Upgrade Prabhat Patnaik

Credit-rating agencies, discredited by the collapse of the housing bubble in the United States when they had blithely endorsed all so-called “sub-prime lending”, are now crawling out of the woodwork, and the Indian establishment is predictably impressed by the sight. Moody’s have just upgraded India’s credit rating marginally and the BJP is beside itself with joy. Surprisingly, much of the media too have flashed the story of the upgrade as if India’s status being raised from Baa3 to Baa2 is a matter that calls for great jubilation. Now, the criteria used by finance capital for judging the performance of a…

GE’s Switch Stephen Maher

The resignation of General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt last month is the latest sign of the broad restructuring of political and economic power currently underway in the United States. His departure, and John Flannery’s arrival, reveals a lot about the new phase of financialization that has emerged from the Great Financial Crisis. As financial markets and institutions became a more important part of the economy in recent decades, so too did they take on a larger role within corporations themselves, even ostensibly nonfinancial enterprises. This fundamental reorganization of corporate power eroded the institutional foundations of the New Deal’s so-called corporate…

Engineering a New Crisis to resolve an Old One C.P. Chandasekhar

News that the US economy grew at 3 per cent during the hurricane-blighted third quarter of 2017, close to the 3.1 per cent recorded in the previous quarter, has once more revived claims that the world economy has left the Great Recession behind. There is one reason to discount this claim. Back to back 3 per cent annualized rates of growth in consecutive quarters has been observed more than once since the 2008 crisis. In fact, as recently as the second and third quarters of 2014, rates of GDP growth in the US stood at 4.6 and 5.2 per cent…

Monitoring the Evolution of Latin American Economies using a Flow-of-funds Framework Esteban Peez Caldentey and Manuel Cruz Luzuriaga

Flow-of-funds accounting permits to monitor the financial sector in terms of flows and stocks and to analyze its relationship with the real sector. Traditionally practised in developed nations, this accounting has not experienced a parallel development in developing countries. In order to fill this gap, the paper undertakes the construction of a data base of flow-of-funds account matrices for various Latin American and Asian countries, exemplifying their use for the study of financial crisis in these regions. Monitoring_Evolution (Download the full text in PDF format)

The Slide of an Aging Leader C. P. Chandrasekhar

After 15 years, the Tata group has exited the mobile telephony business. Its assets in the area located in Tate Tele Services Ltd (TTSL) have been taken over by Bharti Airtel. The Tata name has featured in the mobile telephony market ever since it acquired Hughes Telecom (India), incorporated in 1995, and renamed it Tata Teleservice Maharashtra in 2002. Since Tata Tele’s other enterprise, retail fixed line, and broadband businesses are being merged with Tata Communications and Tata Sky, TTSL is in essence being dismembered. Few of the firm’s current employees would be absorbed by Airtel or the Tatas themselves.…

Create a Crisis and make it Worse C. P. Chandrasekhar

On August 10, the government tabled a new bill in Parliament, with the aim of using its majority to push through a desperate policy initiative in the form of the Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance (FRDI) Act. The Act seeks to create an ostensibly ‘independent’ FRDI Corporation, which would take over the task of resolution of failing financial firms from the Reserve Bank of India and other regulators. To that end, it is to be armed with special and near draconian powers to implement its mandate, and given control of the deposit insurance framework currently managed by the Deposit Insurance…

Downturn Blues C. P. Chandrasekhar

September did not begin well for the Narendra Modi government. As it prepared for a makeover in the form of a cabinet reshuffle with elections 2019 in sight, news came that India’s GDP growth had slowed significantly to 5.7 per cent during the quarter April-June. This deceleration comes in the wake of a fall in growth rates from close to 8 per cent a year earlier to 6.1 per cent during January to March this year. As is to be expected the government has chosen to attribute this trend to short term shocks, which will not dislodge the economy from…

Foreign Investor Appetite C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A brief decline in portfolio inflows into equity markets has raised the question whether foreign investment flows into India have peaked. The evidence of investments in debt markets suggest otherwise. That, however, need not be all good news. Foreign_Investor_Appetite (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally posted in the Business Line on September 11 2015)