The Global “New Normal” is Not New- But it is still a real concern C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

lobal growth rates of the last five years are similar to those in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented monetary expansion that seems to have little impact. Global_New_Normal   (Download the full text in PDF format) ( This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 20, 2016.)

Bad Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating in the books of India’s commercial banks, the implications it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored. Bad_Loans  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 6, 2016.)

The IMF’s Call for Complacence C. P. Chandrasekhar

A specter that haunts a number of so-called emerging markets, including India, is that of a sudden outflow of capital, either because of exit of foreign investors or because of the flight of resident capital. That fear has increased in recent times for two reasons. First, after capital inflows to these economies shrank during the crisis of 2008, they registered a sharp revival and then surged when large quantities of liquidity were infused into the world economy to save the banks and stall the downturn in the developed economies. This increased the stock of footloose capital in these economies, which…

And Now, Price Deflation in India and China? C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Ever since the Global Financial Crisis, advanced economies have been grappling with the spectre of deflation. While this was very clearly a reflection of the downswing in economic activity in the aftermath of the crisis, such price deflation has proved remarkably impervious to the most expansionary monetary policies and liquidity expansion that the world economy has yet seen. This has had adverse consequences in terms of producers’ expectations, which in turn have kept investment low. It has not benefited working people because wages have stayed low or continued to fall. And it has generated tendencies of the debt deflation-type that…

A Picture of Inequality C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The government's decision to release income class-wise details on tax returns allows an assessment of the extent of inequality in the distribution of income among tax payers. Picture_Inequality   (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on May 9, 2016.)

When Commodity Prices Fall C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The decline in primary commodity prices over the past four years particularly last year, shows that financialisation of commodities has amplified and exaggerated instabilities and fluctuations. Commodity_Prices_Fall (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line, April 25, 2016.)

On Data and Decision-making C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Wide differences in official data based on series with different base years or from alternative sources lead to questions about their relevance for decision making. Data_Decision_Making  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on April 11, 2016.)

How much has Global Economic Power Really Shifted? C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

This article analyses the significance of shift in global economic power from the North to the South and what exactly it means for the countries in developing Asia like India. Global_Economic_Power  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on March 28, 2016.)  

Interest Rate Conundrum C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

With interest rates and bond yields turning negative in many developed countries, the efficacy of monetary policy as a counter cyclical instrument is in question. Interest_Rate_Conundrum  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line print edition dated March 14, 2016.)

Is the Rupee “Weakening”? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While much concern being expressed about the weakening rupee, it is not the past record that is the problem; rather, its likely direction in the near future is a cause for worry. Rupee_Weakening  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line, January 18, 2016.)