In this article, the authors run empirical analyses of real commodity prices to show four super-cycles over 1865 to 2009. Non-oil price super-cycles follow those of world GDP, indicating that they are essentially demand determined. In contrast, causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. Moreover, the mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than that of the previous cycle suggesting a step-wise deterioration in support of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.
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