Super-cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid nineteenth Century Bilge Erten and Jose Antonio Ocampo

In this article, the authors run empirical analyses of real commodity prices to show four super-cycles over 1865 to 2009. Non-oil price super-cycles follow those of world GDP, indicating that they are essentially demand determined. In contrast, causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. Moreover, the mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than that of the previous cycle suggesting a step-wise deterioration in support of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

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