networkideas.org - Prices & Inflation

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The Continuing Debt Problem in Asia

C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Private household debt is going to be a major concern for many Asian economies as excessive household debt and falling realty prices combine to create a potentially potent mix.

Macroeconomic Effects of High Interest Rate Policy: Mexico's experience

Julio Lopez Gallardo and Roberto Valencia Arriaga

The authors argue that the key variable to achieve inflation control is the exchange rate and not the interest rate, although the latter indirectly affects the price level and output.

Oil: The big 100 per cent story

C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In a puzzling development, some financial markets registered a decline in the wake of the recent dramatic fall in oil prices. So, is the oil price fall not all good news?

The Offensive against Transfers to the Poor

Prabhat Patnaik

The demand by corporate magnates to roll back the relief measures for the poor is nothing but an expression of the class animosity of corporate capital towards the working poor.

The Bursting of the Asian Housing
Bubble

C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

Housing prices in many developing Asian countries soared after the Global Financial Crisis, but the recent trends suggest that they may be tapering off and even declining.

Why Has This Recession Not Produced a Price Deflation?

Prabhat Patnaik

The current global recession has not witnessed price fall like the Great Depression because globalisation has altered the dynamics of the components determining prices.

The Political Economy of Indian Food Exports

C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The article discusses the political economy configurations that permit rising grain exports from India, even as domestic food prices spiral out of the reach of ordinary people.

The Coming Food Crisis

C.P. Chandrasekhar

Even as the global recessionary trend continues, the world is waking up to the prospect of another food crisis resulting in a period of political turmoil with unexpected consequences. This will have an adverse affect on poor developing country exporters that have not yet recovered fully from earlier crises.

Macroeconomic Impacts of Commodity Price Volatility: G20 report

Aldo Caliari

The G20 has recently come up with a report on the macroeconomic impacts of excessive commodity price volatility on growth. This study has concluded that excessive volatility creates uncertainty over future price levels, and complicates long-term planning and investment which leads to producers and consumers of commodities underinvesting in physical assets that support growth. This commentary highlights the key features and important findings of this report.

Super-cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-nineteenth Century

Bilge Erten and Jose Antonio Ocampo

In this article, the authors run empirical analyses of real commodity prices to show four super-cycles over 1865 to 2009. Non-oil price super-cycles follow those of world GDP, indicating that they are essentially demand determined. In contrast, causality runs in the opposite direction for oil prices. Moreover, the mean of each super-cycle of non-oil commodities is generally lower than that of the previous cycle suggesting a step-wise deterioration in support of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

The Dragon's Shadow

Jayati Ghosh

For a very long time, China's ability to control finance was an important (some would say essential) ingredient of its macroeconomic success. However, post 2008 financial crisis, the country has witnessed a rise in shadow banking activities, which is now raising serious concerns for the Chinese Government.

Is China next?

C.P. Chandrasekhar

While some observers expect a collapse of the property boom in China and a resultant crisis, this seems unlikely to happen because the state, still a major player in China, is responding to the danger in more ways than one.