How China is Managing Capital Flows – and why Jayati Ghosh

The global financial media are always on the lookout for signs of an impending financial crisis in China – and the dark prognostications about the future made by several external observers relate to both internal and external financial flows. But there are reasons to believe that both concerns may be overplayed, and that what is occurring especially with respect to cross-border flows is a much more complex process reflecting a medium-term plan of the Chinese state, in accordance with its much more assertive role in the global scene. There has been much discussion on rising internal debt levels, with analysts…

Foreign Investor Appetite C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A brief decline in portfolio inflows into equity markets has raised the question whether foreign investment flows into India have peaked. The evidence of investments in debt markets suggest otherwise. That, however, need not be all good news. Foreign_Investor_Appetite (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally posted in the Business Line on September 11 2015)

Twenty Years after The Asian Financial Crisis Prabhat Patnaik

Exactly twenty years ago, a major financial crisis had hit the countries of East and South East Asia in July 1997. This crisis was a watershed in the history of third world development, in the sense that these “tiger economies” which had seen extraordinarily high growth rates until that time, remained permanently crippled thereafter. Just around the time that they were shaking off the effects of the 1997 crisis on their respective economies, the collapse of the “housing bubble” in the United States plunged the entire world capitalist system into a crisis which also affected them, so that they could…

RCEP: Is the mega FTA leading us into non strategy? Smitha Francis

As the 19th Round of the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) negotiations winds up in Hyderabad, India, there are many grounds for being apprehensive about the direction in which it has moved. RCEP is one of the two proposed mega free trade agreements (FTAs) aiming at greater integration in the Asia-Pacific region, the other being the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Beginning in May 2013, the RCEP negotiations are being undertaken between the ten member countries of ASEAN and its six FTA partners Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. The initiative was launched to address concerns about the ‘noodle…

Debts that cannot be paid will not be Sabri Oncu

Total global debt has increased, growth has been slowing down since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007 and has been rapidly decelerating after 2012. This may be a sign that the world has arrived at its debt carrying capacity or has even crossed it, meaning that capitalism is probably already insolvent. Debts_that_cannot_be_paid (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally posted in the Economic & Political Weekly on July 15, 2017.)

China’s Capital Flight Syndrome C.P. Chandrasekhar

China, now one of the world’s two largest nations measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is displa­ying a strange malady. A sudden and large outflow of capital from the country is resulting in a sharp fall in its reserves. Going by International Monetary Fund (IMF) statistics, between the quarter ending June 2014 and the one ending June 2016, China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $752 billion, from $4.1 trillion to $3.3 trillion. According to recent reports, reserves had fallen further to $3.1 trillion by the end of October 2016. This collapse in reserves due to an outflow of capital is…