What is really happening in Indian Manufacturing? C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

Data on organised manufacturing production do not really capture the impact of demonetisation and its effects on demand, but looking at some sub-sectors of consumer non-durable goods provides more insight. Indian_Manufacturing (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 14, 2017.)

After neoliberalism, what next? Jayati Ghosh

We may be living through one of those moments in history that future historians will look back on as a watershed, a period of flux that marked a transition to quite different economic and social arrangements. Unfortunately, in human history a ‘moment’ can be a very long time, so long that it could be decades before the final shape of the new arrangements are even evident; and in the interim, there could be many ‘dead cat bounces’ of the current system. What is clear is that the established order – broadly defined as neoliberal globalised finance capitalism – is no…

Growth in the Time of a Credit Squeeze C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

GDP growth figures for the last few years have camouflaged a deceleration in credit growth that has affected all but the retail loans segment quite adversely. Credit_Squeeze (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on July 31, 2017.)

Progressive Mobilization in Europe Jayati Ghosh

Meetings of global leaders – such as recently occurred in the G20 meeting at Hamburg – increasingly have a ring of farce about them. The inability to come to agreement on pretty much anything of significance is leavened only by sideshows and media obsession with which global leader met with whom for how long, who sat in for which President at the “high table”, and similar trivia. Meanwhile, there is abject failure on the part of these leaders to recognize the pressing need for urgent and co-ordinated global action to solve so many current problems, ranging from the terrible state…

Demography and care in Europe: The impact of social relations C.P. Chandrashekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Trends in social relations are both affected by and impact upon economic changes. These in turn have an important bearing on desirable patterns of spending in the care economy, as suggested by an examination of recent marital trends in Europe. Demography_Europe (Download the full text in PDF format) ( This article was originally published in the Business Line on July 17, 2017.)

The Macroeconomics of Basic Income Grants Jayati Ghosh

In a time of short or no historical memory, it is easy to believe that some ideas are completely novel and innovative. So it is with the idea of the “Universal Basic Income”, which is getting much exposure in both developed and developing countries as a fundamentally new policy to deal with contemporary inequalities and the increasing uncertainty around employment generation. I have already considered some of the advantages and concerns with this idea, specifically in the Indian context, in a previous column (http://www.frontline.in/columns/Jayati_Ghosh/a-universal-basic-income-in-india/article9511636.ece). But it is worth looking in more detail at the history of this idea, and some…

China’s Labour Market Conundrum C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Has China's labour market reached a point where long years of high growth have led to demand outstripping supply, resulting in a sharp rise in wages? China_Labour (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on July 4, 2017.)

Computer Outages Jayati Ghosh

It is a truth that should now be universally acknowledged that, everywhere in the world, our lives are driven by computers – or more specifically, by the workings of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and therefore the internet. And our dependence on them is not just temporary or partial: it is continuous and overwhelming. It is not just people who actively use computers – whether on desktops or laptops or tablets or mobile telephones – whose lives are driven by them and by internet access. Increasingly, (and certainly in urban areas) almost all forms of transport, most forms of financial…

Development for Whom? Jayati Ghosh

Calls for a new development paradigm grow louder each day, especially in rapidly growing countries like India. Award-winning development economist Jayati Ghosh explores prospects for such a new model of equitable and sustainable development with Allen White, Senior Fellow at the Tellus Institute. What drew you to the field of development economics? I was interested in how societies function and how social change occurs, so I began by studying sociology. But it seemed that this discipline just skimmed the surface, that deeper underlying economic contexts and processes were crucial for understanding social change, and that without such knowledge, much would…

Brexit and the Economics of Political Change in Developed Countries Jayati Ghosh

The economic forces underlying Brexit—and the election of Donald Trump in the US—are similar, but also well advanced in many European countries, where much of the population faces similar material insecurity and stagnation. These frustrations can easily be channelled by right-wing xenophobic forces. To combat this, the EU needs to undo some of its design flaws and move from austerity to a more flexible union based on the solidarity of its people. Brexit (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally posted in the Taylor and Francis online on June 2, 2017)

Crop Prices and Farmer’s Unrest C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Distressed farmers are demanding loan waivers, but that should not deflect attention from what needs to be done and undone to address the roots of the agrarian crisis.Crop_Prices Crop_Prices (Download the full text in PDF format) ( This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 19, 2017.)

One Belt, One Road, One Grand Design? Jayati Ghosh

It is a truism of history that rising powers tend to be the ones valorising “free” trade and more open and integrated national economies, just as waning powers tend to turn inwards. So it is no surprise that over the past half year, as the United States elected a President with an avowedly protectionist agenda (even if relatively little has been acted upon so far), China’s President has become the chief advocate of globalisation and more extensive trade and investment links across countries. This drumbeat reached a crescendo in mid-May 2017, at a summit in Beijing to celebrate the official…

The GDP Elephant Jayati Ghosh

National income is hard to estimate in India where so much activity and employment is in the informal sector. Much of GDP calculation is not purely “technocratic” but relies on judgments and assumptions. As long as our system of national accounting does not clarify the real impact on the economy and the actual degree of deceleration of economic activity, we will remain in the dark. GDP_Elephant (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in Quatrz India: June 5, 2017)

The Unsustainable US Recovery C. P. Chandrasekha and Jayati Ghosh

Even the limited and unsteady recovery of growth in the US a decade after the 2008 crisis is based on an increase in debt that renders it unsustainable. Unsustainable_US_recovery (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 5, 2017)

Where will Global Demand come from? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As the US reduces its role as engine of global demand, there are no signs that other economies will be able to pick up the slack. The mercantilist approach exemplified by Germany is creating net global slowdown. Global_Demand (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on May 22, 2017)

Lopsided Industrialisation C. P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

Recent trends in the organisational form of units in the registered manufacturing sector suggest that India’s factory sector is not just abnormal but backward to boot. Lopsided_Industrialisation  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally posted in the Business Line on May 8, 2017)

The De-digitisation of India C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Despite the government's efforts to digitise the Indian economy forcibly, non-cash forms of payment appear to have declined as more currency has been made available to the public. This points to major flaws in the government's coercive approach and the underlying rationale for cashlessness. De_Digitisation_India  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on April 24, 2017.)

The State in Chinese Banking C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

After four decades of financial reform China’s banking sector is still dominated by publicly owned institutions. But continuity in ownership does not mean that banking behaviour does not change. Chinese_Banking (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on April 10, 2017)

The Persistence of Child Marriage Jayati Ghosh

It is commonplace to note that women tend to have low status and little autonomy over much of Indian society. This is reflected in many distressing features that have persisted and even intensified in recent years despite all the talk of modernisation: the low and falling rates of female participation in recognised employment; adverse child sex ratios that appear to be even worse among more well-off groups; increases in recorded cases of violence against women. But there is one very startling feature that gets relatively little attention: the continuing prevalence of child marriage across most parts of the country. According…

The Consequences of Legal Impunity Jayati Ghosh

There are many reasons to worry about and to be anguished by the communalisation of Indian politics and society that has proceeded apace over the last few decades. There is the general coarsening of the public discourse, which increasingly gets driven by prejudice and rumour rather than fact. There is the increase in both subtle and open forms of discrimination, typically directed by members of the majority community against the minority community, but often expressed against the “other” whenever that person or group is perceived as being weaker. There is the hardening of positions within communities, with hard-line stances in…

ICT: Implications of imbalanced growth

An analysis of India's ICT performance suggests that software export success tends to hide both imbalances in production and their adverse balance of payments fall-out. ICT  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on March 13, 2017)

Words and Music in the Romantic Imagination Jayati Ghosh

What makes for a “Romantic” sensibility? Not in the literal sense of being inclined to “romance”, but in the sense of the movement that subsequently became a tradition in 19th century literature and the arts in Europe, when this sensibility permeated much creative endeavour. Romanticism has generally been associated with an emphasis on emotion and a celebration of subjectivity in terms of the individual’s response to the world; a glorification of nature, as well as of the past; in many ways a cultural expression of the reaction to the standardisation and rule-bound socio-economic patterns created by the Industrial Revolution. But…

Quarterly GDP Estimates: Curiouser and curiouser Jayati Ghosh

So maybe the demonetisation never really happened. Maybe it was all a bad dream: the late evening announcement, the subsequent cash crunch, the regulatory chaos, the deaths because people could not get medical treatment with old notes. Maybe the reporters who described all the job losses and migrant workers forced to go back home and farmers unable to get their sowing done in time and so on were all affected by a mirage. Maybe those who conducted surveys and found massive drops in sales, in consumer spending, in livelihoods of informal workers and self-employed people were similarly deluded. And of…

Marital Breakdown in India C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Although divorce rates are low in India, separation is the dominant form of marital dissolution, and this is especially problematic for women because of the uncertain legal status and lack of rights. Marital_Breakdown_India  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on February 27, 2017)  

Budget 2017-18: Social spending Jayati Ghosh

The Modi government over the past three years has not been noted for its generosity towards the social sector and spending to meet goals of improving human development. Indeed, if the past were any guide, there would be little reason to expect much increase in social sector budgetary outlays on the part of the central government. However, this year, for various reasons, analysts were led to expect that there would be at least some change from the fiscal disdain the government has shown in the past to this area. After all, the failed demonetisation has severely dented living standards of…

Interpreting The World To Change It Essays For Prabhat Patnaik; Edited By  C.P. Chandrasekhar And Jayati Ghosh

Interpreting the World to Change it Essays for Prabhat Patnaik; edited by C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

February 2017 • 6.25 x 9.5 inches • (xvi+284) 300 pages • Hardback •  ISBN: 978-93-82381-93-8 •  Rs 850 Prabhat Patnaik’s academic insights and strong political commitment have stimulated intellectual activity and inspired personal regard across a multitude of people from all walks of life. This volume brings together contributions from some who have benefited from interaction with him over decades, in a tribute and continuing conversation. Prabhat Patnaik, born 19 September 1945 in Odisha, India, is one of the outstanding economists of his generation and a leading Marxist theoretician in the world today. Versatile in his knowledge and mastery…

Bond Market Reversal C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Post-Trump expectations of a shift back from an easy monetary policy with low interest rates to reliance on a fiscal stimulus for growth are reversing trends in global bond markets. Bond_Market_Reversal  (Download the full text in PDF format) * This article was originally published in the Business Line on February 13, 2017

A Universal Basic Income in India? Jayati Ghosh

There is a lot of buzz globally around the idea of a Universal Basic Income (or UBI). It is perceived as one way of coping with technology-induced unemployment that is projected to grow significantly in the near future, as well as reducing inequalities and increasing consumption demand in stagnant economies. Certainly there is much to be said for the idea, especially if it is to be achieved by taxing the rich and particularly those activities that are either socially less desirable or are generating larger surpluses because of technological changes. Indeed, that is precisely the proposal of the French Socialist…

A Disappointingly Ordinary Budget for Extraordinary Times Jayati Ghosh

The most striking thing about Arun Jaitley’s budget presentation for 2017-18 is just how unstriking it is. A lot of was expected from this Budget, and it is largely the Government’s own fault that the expectations were so many and so contradictory. In the event, the Finance Minister has presented a very “ordinary” Budget, which is unlikely to satisfy most people who recognise that these are definitely not “ordinary” economic times. First, this Budget comes directly in the wake of demonetisation followed by painfully slow and inadequate remonetisation, which has dealt a body blow to the informal sector as well…

Budget 2017 must Support those Worst Hit by Demonetisation Jayati Ghosh

How to mitigate and reverse the adverse impact of the demonetisation ought to be at the top of the Finance Minister’s agenda for the coming Budget. The effects of the ill-considered and even more poorly implemented scheme are still being felt across the country, in the form of reduced economic activity, job losses and reductions in income and consumption. Since remonetisation is still incomplete – and the government has already threatened not to replace the full value of the demonetised currency in a coercive push to digitisation – the impact on economic activity from that one source alone will continue…

Will We Miss the Budget Opportunity? Jayati Ghosh

This year’s Budget would never have been easy to present, with the economic uncertainty swirling around the globe and the demonetisation-induced domestic downturn still ongoing in the Indian economy. But the Modi government seems to be determined to make its own task harder. It has managed to generate expectations that will almost inevitably be unfulfilled, through a weird combination of denial of the manifold ill-effects of demonetisation, encouragement of all sorts of ideas around the universal basic income, and simultaneous acceptance of relatively rigid fiscal targets. But consider first the very timing of the Budget announcement, in the context of…

Spreading Light: Are the Modi government’s electricity promises being fulfilled? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The government's claim that it has ensured electricity for all does not seem to be warranted by the evidence. Spreading_Light  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on January 30, 2017.)

The Widening Gap between Rich and Poor Jayati Ghosh

We all know that the world is an unequal place, both across and within countries. We also know that across the world, people are expressing their anger and disgust at this inequality. This is increasingly revealed in extreme and often paradoxical political results. In the USA, a vote against the establishment has just delivered to power the ultimate crony capitalist, Donald Trump. In the United Kingdom people voted to leave the European Union in the false expectation that curbing migration will improve their own life chances. In India the poor, disgusted by a corrupt self-enriching elite, support a bizarre and…

Buckling under Pressure Jayati Ghosh

Is there no one left in our important institutions who is still capable of speaking truth to power? The last year has seen a depressing – even frightening – erosion in the credibility of the major institutions that in different ways are vital for the functioning of our democracy. It is true that the Congress Party when in power has also not covered itself in glory in terms of respecting such institutions, except when forced to do so. But the current “low, dishonest” phase of history (in W.H. Auden’s apt phrase) that we are experiencing in India surely marks a…

Waning Stimuli C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Banks strapped with stressed assets are holding back on lending, dampening in the process the principal stimulus to growth in recent years. And there are no alternative routes to growth in sight. Waning_Stimuli   (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on January 16, 2017.)

The Growth of Digital Payments C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

In the context of the failed demonetisation and continued shortage of currency, the government continues to push cashless digital payments. What are the implications for Indians? Digital_Payments    (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on January 2, 2017.)

Age of Uncertainty C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

With the US Federal Reserve deciding to exit the era of low interest rates even when growth in the rest of the world economy falters or remains sluggish, economic uncertainty intensifies. Age_Uncertainty (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on December 19, 2016)

Digital Dreams Jayati Ghosh

“Plastic is the new khadi” is the currently popular saying transmitted across social media.  As Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government continuously shift the goal posts of the extraordinarily violent demonetisation move, it turns out that the fruit of all the trauma that the majority of the Indian population is going through will be – to become a cashless society! The exhortation to move to e-payments has become the basis for the new definition of nationalism: the ability to pay for something with a card or a mobile phone or internet account is now the real proof of your…

Money and the Social Contract in India Jayati Ghosh

The social contract between a state and its citizens is a complex thing. Philosophers of the European “Enlightenment” saw it as the basis on which society is organised so as to ensure the mutual protection and welfare of its members. It is therefore the implicit social arrangement whereby citizens give up some of their rights and freedoms to the state or a similar authority, in return for some degree of order and stability that would effectively ensure the protection of their remaining rights and freedoms. In very unequal societies, the voluntary nature of such a social contract is not particularly…

Can Developing Asia Hold its Ground? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Capital flight from Asia points to investor concerns about both political processes in the big Asian developing economies and medium-term economic prospects. developing_asia_hold_ground (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on December 5, 2016)

India’s Export Collapse C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

A peculiar combination of factors, besides the global recession, explains India's poor export performance in recent times. India_Export_Collapse (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on November 21, 2016.)

Demonetisation was Primarily a Political Act Jayati Ghosh

Two weeks into the surprise announcement of by Prime Minister Modi of the demonetisation of “high value” notes, it is becoming more evident by the day that the primary purpose was political rather than economic, and that this political purpose was specifically directed towards ensuring the fortunes of the ruling party vis-à-vis its rivals. Nothing else can explain the abrupt nature of the announcement or the subsequent manner of its implementation, which has been so apparently insensitive to the specific needs of so much of India’s working population. While a lot of the criticism of this scheme has focussed on…

The Political Economy of Demonetising High Value Notes Jayati Ghosh

The Modi government is extremely adept at optics, at policy measures presented in a blaze of publicity that dazzles the public, rather than with the required attention to detail that might ensure their success. The latest announcement of the demonetisation of high value bank notes is of the “shock and awe” variety of measures. While presented as evidence of the government’s supposedly firm resolve to root out black money, in reality it will barely touch the problem of generation of black money, even as it is being implemented in a way that causes immense economic harm to ordinary people and…

Colombia: The search for elusive peace Jayati Ghosh

They march in tens of thousands, every Wednesday, through the streets of central Bogota: young and old; students and teachers; well-paid professionals, trade unionists and informal workers; healthy and disabled; urban and rural residents; family members and friends of the countless numbers who have been killed or maimed or have simply disappeared during this apparently endless war. They march for peace, and for a renewed attempt to find an agreement to settle the decades-old war between named and unnamed protagonists. Ever since the peace agreement painfully negotiated between FARC (the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) and the government was rejected…

How successful is China’s Economic Rebalancing? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

China's rapid economic growth has slowed recently - but does this reflect the desired rebalancing of the economy away from investment to consumption and wage-led growth? China_Economic_Rebalancing  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on November 8, 2016.)

Understanding the American Right Jayati Ghosh

A visit to the USA at the height of the Presidential election season, in a nation obsessed with polls that are just a few weeks away, creates simultaneous sensations of fascination, dismay and even horror. Even from a distance, the entire world has been watching this hugely significant election turn into an ever more sordid and distressing spectacle, with vitriolic lows in the campaign discussion that are perhaps unparalleled in any other election through time and across countries. The personal failings of both candidates are now only too well known, and are effectively blocking out all serious consideration of the…

Who’s Afraid of the Fiscal Deficit? Jayati Ghosh

The ongoing review of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act 2003, by a Committee set up by the central government, has once again brought to the fore the vexed question of whether limits should be set by law to the government’s fiscal practices. More particularly, the issue being considered is whether the rigid fiscal deficit and current deficit targets set by the FRBMA are either meaningful or desirable in the contemporary economic environment. There are many reasons to be willing to reconsider the FRBMA. While strict rules for limits on public debt and the fiscal deficit (either in absolute…

Housing Market Frenzy in China C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The urban housing market in China is experiencing a bubble that is driving property prices to unbelievable levels in some of the major cities. But the divergence in recent trends in house prices suggests that this bubble may soon burst. housing_market_china (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on October 11, 2016-11-03)

The Pulses Conundrum C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As inflation in the prices of pulses gives way to a price decline, a misplaced argument that the government should not regulate the private trade to curb speculation and stabilise prices is being expressed. Pulses_Conundrum  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on September 26, 2016.)

Recognising Different Skills and their Uses Jayati Ghosh

Skill development and training are two terms that are greatly beloved of policy makers – and indeed of analysts in general – as they seem to present easy solutions to so many labour market concerns. It is commonplace in India, for example, to hear that our economic growth is constrained by the lack of skills among the bulk of our workers, and that skill development is therefore not only a policy priority but also a relatively easy, inexpensive and painless way to ensure employment growth, especially in formal activities. It is seen as the proverbial low-hanging fruit for governments to…

Recent growth in the Indian economy Jayati Ghosh

What does one make of the Indian economy? It is now declared to be the fastest growing in the world, “the one bright spot in an otherwise gloomy world economy” according to IMF Chief Christine Lagarde, apparently on course to “become a key engine of global growth”. There is no doubt that the economic potential of India is huge: now with more than 1.2 billion people, with hundreds of millions of people with middle class aspirations who will constitute a huge and growing market. Over the decades the economy has diversified to some extent, even if the share of manufacturing…

India and Indians at Seventy Plus Jayati Ghosh

For the majority of Indians aged 70 or more, their sheer survival may be the most positive aspect of their lives since the state, instead of taking any measures of social protection, puts the burden of their care on families without considering their economic situation. indians_seventy_plus (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Frontline, Print edition: September 2, 2016)  

Unexpected Inflation C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The return of inflation, even if moderate, at a time when India is experiencing a normal monsoon and after a long period of inflation-targeted monetary policy is surprising. Unexpected_Inflation  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 29, 2016.)

Care Work as the Work of the Future C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As technological change threatens many different kinds of jobs, the significance of direct face-to-face interaction required in much care work means that it is unlikely to be as adversely affected. What does this mean for the future requirements of care workers? Future_Care_Work (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 15, 2016.)

The Economics of Political Change in Developed Countries Jayati Ghosh

Across the world, people have been watching recent political changes in developed countries with a mixture of bemusement and shock. From the recent anointment of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for US President, to the rise and spread of blatantly racist anti-immigration political parties and movements in Europe, it is clear that there are tectonic shifts under way in the political discourse and practice in these countries. As these changes have gone from the unthinkable to the depressingly predictable, there are increasingly desperate attempts to understand what is driving them. This is especially the case because – despite all…

The Return to Retail Lending C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

After having retreated from retail lending in the years since 2005-06, banks burdened by NPAs in areas like infrastructure seem to be returning to the retail market. How far can this go? Retail_Lending  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 1, 2016.)

25 Years of Economic Reforms: Agriculture Jayati Ghosh

In the fateful month of July 1991 when the devaluation of the Indian rupee presaged the introduction of a whole series of liberalising economic reforms, agriculture was very far from the minds of most policy makers and commentators. The immediate focus was on the balance of payments, and thereafter on industry and other sectors (like the “modern” services”). Indeed, subsequent policy measures, oriented towards trade and foreign investment liberalisation and deregulation of domestic industry and then finance, tended to reinforce the emphasis that was being put on non-agricultural sectors as the means to both faster economic growth and development in…

Why the European Union should be Even More Worried about Brexit C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The economic pressures that may have driven the Brexit vote are also evident in other big European nations. So to survive, the EU must rethink its template for economic policies.   European_Union_Worried (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on July 18, 2016.)

The Real Banking Problem C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Recognizing bad assets and writing them off may not resolve the banking problem, since the new financial order requires banks to lend to those who seem more prone to default. Banking_Problem  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on July 4, 2016.)

The Global “New Normal” is Not New- But it is still a real concern C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

lobal growth rates of the last five years are similar to those in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented monetary expansion that seems to have little impact. Global_New_Normal   (Download the full text in PDF format) ( This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 20, 2016.)

Broken promises to India’s youth Jayati Ghosh

Two years ago, when Narendra Modi led the BJP to a huge victory in the general elections, there was little doubt that the youth of India, and especially those in the Hindi heartland, had played a significant role in this victory. In his election speeches, Mr Modi particularly addressed the aspirational young, promising them jobs and “development” rather than “welfare” and offering the hope of a new galvanising energy in place of the tired and apparently directionless government that the UPA regime in its final stages seemed to have become. In many parts of the country, young voters – many…

Bad Loans, Lending Behaviour and Growth C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

As interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating in the books of India’s commercial banks, the implications it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored. Bad_Loans  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 6, 2016.)

And Now, Price Deflation in India and China? C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Ever since the Global Financial Crisis, advanced economies have been grappling with the spectre of deflation. While this was very clearly a reflection of the downswing in economic activity in the aftermath of the crisis, such price deflation has proved remarkably impervious to the most expansionary monetary policies and liquidity expansion that the world economy has yet seen. This has had adverse consequences in terms of producers’ expectations, which in turn have kept investment low. It has not benefited working people because wages have stayed low or continued to fall. And it has generated tendencies of the debt deflation-type that…

A Picture of Inequality C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The government's decision to release income class-wise details on tax returns allows an assessment of the extent of inequality in the distribution of income among tax payers. Picture_Inequality   (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on May 9, 2016.)

When Commodity Prices Fall C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

The decline in primary commodity prices over the past four years particularly last year, shows that financialisation of commodities has amplified and exaggerated instabilities and fluctuations. Commodity_Prices_Fall (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line, April 25, 2016.)

On Data and Decision-making C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Wide differences in official data based on series with different base years or from alternative sources lead to questions about their relevance for decision making. Data_Decision_Making  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on April 11, 2016.)

How much has Global Economic Power Really Shifted? C.P. Chandrasekhar & Jayati Ghosh

This article analyses the significance of shift in global economic power from the North to the South and what exactly it means for the countries in developing Asia like India. Global_Economic_Power  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on March 28, 2016.)  

Interest Rate Conundrum C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

With interest rates and bond yields turning negative in many developed countries, the efficacy of monetary policy as a counter cyclical instrument is in question. Interest_Rate_Conundrum  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line print edition dated March 14, 2016.)

Musical Expressions Jayati Ghosh

For many listeners, the string quartet provides at once the most intimate and the most expansive of musical possibilities. The combination of two violins, a viola and a cello playing together was first developed and then nearly perfected by Joseph Haydn in 18th century Austria. Since then its popularity has never waned, and it has remained an important vehicle for musical expression even for composers in the 21st century. Because it requires musicians to play together and listen together, it creates bonds that can almost be palpably felt by listeners. So there is something about these four string voices heard…

Capital Bleeds from Emerging Asia C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

Capital flight, in 2015, from the emerging markets, especially those in Asia, was much worse than has been previously estimated. This augurs ill for the coming year. Emerging_Asia (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line print edition dated February 2, 2016.)  

Is the Rupee “Weakening”? C.P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh

While much concern being expressed about the weakening rupee, it is not the past record that is the problem; rather, its likely direction in the near future is a cause for worry. Rupee_Weakening  (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line, January 18, 2016.)